A bright future for zero-emission trucks. BEVs are expected to overtake internal combustion engine technology within a decade. Globally, as infrastructure is catching up, PwC analysts expect zero-emission vehicles to essentially replace traditional trucks within the next 15 years.
In Europe, two factors are driving relatively rapid decarbonisation: increasingly stringent regulatory requirements and a simultaneous reduction in the total cost of ownership (TCO) of ZEVs. In the short term, the war in Ukraine is also forcing European governments to reorient their energy policies to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. However, accelerated energy turnover also has a positive impact on specific TCO analysis. The study proves that by 2030, the cost advantage of pure electric trucks will be about 30% higher than that of internal combustion engine vehicles. Energy costs are largely driving the TCO push in the direction of electric trucks. PwC also expects electric trucks to start making more economic sense than any other technology as early as 2025, as vehicle costs fall due to things like lower battery costs and greater public acceptance. Of course, in the short term, fleet electrification efforts must mitigate electricity price risk.
Driving the change are legal requirements and the growing cost advantage of electric trucks. In Europe, they are expected to pay half as much tolls from May 2023. "As a result, logistics companies can save up to 25,000 euros per truck per year." Truck manufacturers, on the other hand, have to pay increasingly higher fines for exceeding increasingly stringent CO2 limits. Of course, there's the issue of infrastructure, which analysts call "a key prerequisite for accelerated growth." PwC estimates that no less than 36 billion euros will need to be invested in a network of charging and hydrogen refueling stations by 2035 in Europe alone. According to the study, up to 21,000 additional wind turbines would be needed to provide enough green electricity for electric trucks.
In terms of the number of charging stations, this means at least 2,000 by 2035 and 120 MW of charging stations by 2025 for a regional coverage network at a cost of up to 1 billion euros. In the long-term, the high-demand scenario in Europe would require 1,800 charging stations and an additional 600 pure overnight parks, requiring an investment of 36 billion euros. PwC reckons a motorway charging station with 6 MW charging stations and 34 overnight charging points will cost 8.5 million euros. Translated into truck battery demand, Europe would need 170 GWh by 2035, and North America and China would need 800 GWh.
Recently, Musk publicly announced that the Tesla electric truck Semi has begun production and is expected to start delivery on December 1. As early as when it was first released in 2017, many companies placed orders, including PepsiCo ordered 100 vehicles, Wal-Mart ordered 130 vehicles, etc., hoping to reduce carbon emissions and transportation costs in transportation. The Semi has a range of nearly 800 kilometers and can be fully charged to 70% in 30 minutes. The Semi's full load can reach 82,000 pounds, or about 37.2 tons. After mass production, Tesla semi trucks will begin delivering to PepsiCo in California. And rival Volvo will deliver heavy-duty electric trucks to Amazon in Germany.
China is one of the largest commercial vehicle markets in the world, and the market for electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in China is starting to mature. Driven by the "dual carbon" policy, China's new energy heavy trucks have developed rapidly. From 2021 to the end of August 2022, sales of new energy heavy trucks have exceeded 24,000, of which electric heavy trucks accounted for as high as 93.05%, with a total sales of more than 22,000, which are the main sales models of new energy heavy trucks. In the latest 362 batches of new vehicle publicity, there are 95 types of electric heavy trucks, accounting for 70.90% of the new energy heavy trucks. The models cover tractors, dump trucks, trucks, mixer trucks and special vehicles (sanitation and engineering). Xugong Automobile, Zhengzhou Yutong, Foton Zhilan Automobile, Sany Automobile, Dongfeng Automobile, Xiamen King Long, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Hanma Technology and other auto companies have declared a variety of electric heavy truck models.
In China, due to the "dual carbon" strategy, there are relatively strict restrictions on the carbon emission indicators of high-emission enterprises such as steel plants, coal mines, and cement. In order to meet the regulatory requirements for carbon emission indicators, these high-emission enterprises have replaced fuel heavy trucks with electric heavy trucks in large quantities, earning "green points", thereby increasing the operating rate of enterprises and increasing the sales of electric heavy trucks. To promote the advanced development of China's electric trucks, it is necessary to absorb advanced foreign technology and make adjustments according to its own market conditions. But there is no doubt that in the world, electric trucks have become a trend.